Backtest Do members beat the market?
We take each member's disclosed BUY/SELL trades and compare them to the S&P 500 the only fair way: same money, same days. On every day their trades commit capital, the same dollars go into the index instead — so a member who traded recently isn't judged against an index that was invested for two full years. The chart shows how far each ran above or below that matched market (0 = dead even).
Above the line beat a matched S&P 500; below it trailed. These are the six members furthest above their matched market — the exceptions, not the rule.
Furthest above a matched market (hypothetical)
| # | Member | Chamber | Return on capital | vs matched S&P 500 | If you'd followed | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Tuberville | Senate | +10.4% | +10.4 | +3.0 | 13 |
| 2 | Ritchie John Torres | House | +0.9% | +0.9 | -16.0 | 61 |
| 3 | Debbie Dingell | House | -0.5% | -0.5 | -3.0 | 6 |
| 4 | Steve Cohen | House | -2.1% | -2.1 | +6.8 | 8 |
| 5 | Lisa McClain | House | -9.3% | -9.3 | -22.9 | 1305 |
| 6 | Daniel Crenshaw | House | -9.9% | -9.9 | -9.9 | 5 |
Return on capital is the total return on every dollar the member's disclosed trades put to work. vs matched S&P 500 is the gap, in index points, against that same money invested in the index on the same days — the fair comparison. Only members with at least 5 priceable trades are included. A hypothetical backtest on public disclosures (amounts are ranges and can lag the trade by weeks); not their real portfolio, and not investment advice.
But could you have done this? Return on capital and vs matched S&P measure each member's own trades — bought when they bought, which wasn't public yet, so you couldn't have replicated it. The "If you'd followed" column rebuilds the exact same line committing capital only after each trade became public — what a follower could actually do, look-ahead-free. Compare the two: the disclosure lag usually eats most of the edge. That's the whole point — watching Congress trade is useful; copying it is not.