Signals How our signals actually did
We keep a record of every stock our Signals page flags, then check — 21 days later — how it moved versus the S&P 500. A bullish call is "right" if the stock beat the market; a bearish call if it lagged. We show the hits and the misses. No cherry-picking, no survivorship, no hindsight.
An honest scorecard, not a track record to sell you. This measures whether our signals carry information — it is not a claim of profit, not investment advice, and past results don't predict future ones. Signals are judged only against prices after they were made (no look-ahead).
50%
hit rate
(332/662 calls right)
(332/662 calls right)
+1.27%
avg excess move
in the called direction
in the called direction
479
signals still
too recent to judge
too recent to judge
So far our signals land about as often as not. We'll keep tracking it openly as the sample grows.
Recent judged signals
| Signalled | Ticker | Call | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | VLY | bullish | +13.3% | -2.1% | +15.4% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | LTH | bullish | +11.0% | -2.1% | +13.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | VG | bullish | +7.3% | -2.1% | +9.5% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | ENBP | bullish | +7.2% | -2.1% | +9.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | ADC-PA | bullish | -0.9% | -2.1% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | SOLV | bullish | -5.8% | -2.1% | -3.6% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-15 | VSNT | bullish | +4.9% | -2.1% | +7.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | GAP | bullish | -3.9% | -2.1% | -1.8% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-15 | MKC | bullish | +5.5% | -2.1% | +7.7% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | GEN | bullish | +25.3% | -2.1% | +27.4% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | LYV | bearish | +4.4% | -2.1% | +6.6% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-15 | MRSH | bearish | +14.1% | -2.1% | +16.3% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-15 | FULT | bullish | +6.2% | -2.1% | +8.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | DD | bearish | +7.7% | -2.1% | +9.8% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-15 | OMC | bearish | +6.2% | -2.1% | +8.4% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-15 | TSLA | bearish | +4.5% | -2.1% | +6.6% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-15 | DDOG | bearish | -19.8% | -2.1% | -17.7% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | NBIS | bearish | -30.3% | -2.1% | -28.2% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | GPC | bearish | -4.8% | -2.1% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | BA | bearish | -9.9% | -2.1% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-15 | CCI | bearish | +11.4% | -2.1% | +13.5% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | LYV | bearish | +4.4% | -1.8% | +6.2% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | MKC | bullish | +5.5% | -1.8% | +7.3% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | FULT | bullish | +6.2% | -1.8% | +8.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | VG | bullish | +7.3% | -1.8% | +9.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | VLY | bullish | +13.3% | -1.8% | +15.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | SOLV | bullish | -5.8% | -1.8% | -4.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | ENBP | bullish | +7.2% | -1.8% | +9.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | GAP | bullish | -3.9% | -1.8% | -2.1% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | VSNT | bullish | +4.9% | -1.8% | +6.7% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | MTSI | bearish | -29.0% | -1.8% | -27.2% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | CCI | bearish | +11.4% | -1.8% | +13.2% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | ADC-PA | bullish | -0.9% | -1.8% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | MRSH | bearish | +14.1% | -1.8% | +15.9% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | GEN | bullish | +25.3% | -1.8% | +27.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | LTH | bullish | +11.0% | -1.8% | +12.8% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | DD | bearish | +7.7% | -1.8% | +9.5% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | OMC | bearish | +6.2% | -1.8% | +8.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | TSLA | bearish | +4.5% | -1.8% | +6.3% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-14 | DDOG | bearish | -19.8% | -1.8% | -18.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | NBIS | bearish | -30.3% | -1.8% | -28.5% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | GPC | bearish | -4.8% | -1.8% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-14 | BA | bearish | -9.9% | -1.8% | -8.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | VG | bullish | +7.3% | -2.9% | +10.2% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | VLY | bullish | +13.3% | -2.9% | +16.2% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | MKC | bullish | +5.5% | -2.9% | +8.4% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | FULT | bullish | +6.2% | -2.9% | +9.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | SOLV | bullish | -5.8% | -2.9% | -2.9% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-13 | ADC-PA | bullish | -0.9% | -2.9% | +2.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | ENBP | bullish | +7.2% | -2.9% | +10.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | GAP | bullish | -3.9% | -2.9% | -1.0% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-13 | VSNT | bullish | +4.9% | -2.9% | +7.8% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | LYV | bearish | +4.4% | -2.9% | +7.3% | ✗ miss |
| 2026-10-13 | BA | bearish | -9.9% | -2.9% | -7.0% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | GPC | bearish | -4.8% | -2.9% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | MTSI | bearish | -29.0% | -2.9% | -26.1% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | LTH | bullish | +11.0% | -2.9% | +13.9% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | GEN | bullish | +25.3% | -2.9% | +28.2% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | LSCC | bearish | -26.2% | -2.9% | -23.4% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-10-13 | DD | bearish | +7.7% | -2.9% | +10.6% | ✗ miss |
Each signal is judged 21 days after it was made, against the S&P 500 over the same window. "Excess" is the stock's move minus the market's. A hit means the move went the way the signal called. This is a hypothetical evaluation on public data, not actual trading performance.